Jul 1, 2015

Update July 1, 2015

There has not much been movement lately. US indices are in a sideways movement as of February 26th/March 3rd. The Nasdaq is making slightly higher tops but it takes a lot of time to form such a slightly higher top. This sideways movement is taking very long and it is hard to trade.

European indices are in a downward trend, making lower tops and bottoms. The tops date from April 10 (DAX) and April 27 (CAC). However, the downtrend is not very strong.

It is hard to define cycle tops and bottoms. The most likely scenario is that US indices made a cycle bottom on February 2nd and still are in the nominal 18-weeks cycle. This would make the current week number 22. But markets hardly moved since February 2nd so I would leave the cycle out of my analysis. European markets made a cycle bottom on January 6 and do not show a clear bottom between then and now. This would make the current week number 27 and that is too long. I will ignore the cycle for now as it is currently too unclear to use for trading.

The possible turn dates for the next three months are:

Based on astrology:
  • 3-8-2015
  • 22-9-2015 (This date could extend until September 28.)
Based on day counting:
  • 8-7-2015
  • 20-7-2015
  • 30-7-2015
  • 6-9-2015
  • 19-9-2015
  • 29-9-2015
Bradley dates:
  • 1-7-2015
  • 16-7-2015
  • 23-7-2015
  • 15-8-2015
  • 27-8-2015
  • 17-9-2015
  • 23-9-2015