Dec 9, 2013

Evaluation of expected 2013 turn dates.




Evaluation of expected 2013 turn dates.

Let us look back at the year behind us and see whether the reversal dates I published on January 10, 2013 did result in reversals. I published the following reversal dates, which all have an orb of 3 trading days on both sides:

Level 1:

March 27 - April 1
No reversal
April 25
There was a major bottom at April 18/19. It just falls outside the orb of 3 trading days.
May 25
Major top
August 21-27
There was a major bottom at August 28 in the US indexes and September 4 in the European indexes. Strange enough, the top of the cycle in European indexes fell on August 14-16, and August 16 also falls within the range of 3 trading days of this predicted reversal period. I think the true bottom of the cycle was on September 4, but US indexes were closed that day and might have made their cycle bottom on September 4 if the markets would have been open then. I now understand the reason why it was on September 4 and will take it into account for my future analyses.

Level 2:

February 6-10
No reversal
February 25
Major bottom.
May 10
No reversal.
June 6
No reversal in European indexes, minor reversal in US indexes.
July 17-22
No reversal
August 1
Reversal in US indexes
October 3
Falls just outside the bottom of October 9.
October 18
No reversal
November 3
No reversal
November 12-17
No reversal

Which dates did I miss?
There were two reversals whose dates were not in my list of possible reversal dates.
These are:

March 15
I think the trigger was that Mars entered the cardinal sign of Aries. This was the top of a primary cycle in European indexes, which made its bottom when Mars left the cardinal sign of Aries.
June 24
On this date, I only had a cluster of lunar events and nothing else. Not a reason to expect a major reversal. It was a major Bradley reversal date and that one worked out very well.


In my expected reversal dates for 2014, I will also take into account day counting, which can improve the strength of a possible reversal date. When I expect a reversal date based on astrological reasons and that date is confirmed by forward counting certain day counts from previous reversal dates, that date might have a higher chance to actually turn out as a reversal date. Turn dates for 2014 will be published later this month. Perhaps I will reduce the number of possible turn dates for 2014. As you can see in 2013, you only need a couple of days a year with major reversals. But reducing the number of turn dates will make it more probable to miss a date. I will try to be more selective.