Nov 29, 2013

Update November 29, 2013

So, where are we now in the primary cycle? My possible turn date of November 15 did not result in a turn. Is my preview still valid? The sure thing is that a primary cycle started at November 16, 2012 in both US and European indexes, as from then, it is unclear when primary cycle tops and bottoms have been formed.

I have two possible scenario’s.

The dates mentioned are taken from the S&P500:

Scenario 1:

Start                      Top                End

Nov 16, 2012  -  Feb 20, 2013   - Feb 27, 2013       (top in DAX is on Jan 28)

Feb 27, 2013   -  May 25, 2013 - June 24, 2013

June 24, 2013   -   ??                  - ??

Scenario 2:

Start                Top                   End

Nov 16, 2012  -  Apr 11, 2013 - Apr 19, 2013     (top in DAX is on March 14)

Apr 19, 2013   -  Aug 2, 2013 - Aug 28, 2013     (top in DAX is on May 22)

Aug 28, 2013   - ??                  - ??                 (bottom in DAX was on September 4)

The thing is that I have December 25 2013 as a possible turning date and the next one is around March 2, 2014. I don’t think that the December 25 turn date will be a bottom. The March 2, 2014 turn date could be a bottom. That makes it almost impossible that June 24 has been the start of a new primary cycle as the time between June 24 and March 2, 2014 is too long for a primary cycle. This period is 35 weeks and this is way too long for a primary cycle that has a average length of 18 weeks and should take between 12 and 26 weeks. Please note that recently primary cycles are quite long. This can be considered as normal behavior with Saturn in Sagittarius. “Saturn in Sagittarius can produce long-lasting bull runs.”

I think I will have to change my view. August 28/September 4 makes more sense as the last Primary cycle bottom than June 24. But I am not 100% sure.

Nov 17, 2013

Update November 17, 2013

These are hard times for cycle analysis. Stock markets seem to have only one direction: UP. If my analysis has been right, we are now in week 21 of the primary cycle that started on June 24th. The alternative scenario is that a new primary cycle has started on September 4 on the DAX and CAC40, and on August 28th in the S&P500.
We are now in the middle of the turn period of November 15th. In addition to timing using planetary events, there are also techniques that use day counts. Important numbers are 144 and 216.

June 24,  2013+ 144 calendar days =  November 15, 2011.
April 19,  2013+ 216 calendar days = November 21, 2013
Furthermore, May 22, 2013 + 180 calendar days = November 18, 2013.

When we allow an orb of 3 trading days, this gives a cluster of dates that could produce a turn in the period November 18-20th. This would result in a decline that should last until the end of the year. This would be contrary of what markets use to do at the end of the year: show a year-end-rally. On the other hand, markets are now up for this calendar year with impressive percentages:

Nasdaq: 28 %
S&P500: 22%
DAX: 18%
FTSE: 11%

These are the year-to-date results according to Yahoo finance. We have not seen this impressive numbers for a long time and perhaps a decline would make sense.So, if markets continue to go higher after November 21, I think they will continue their rally until the end of the year.