So, where are we now in the primary cycle? My possible turn date of November 15 did not result in a turn. Is my preview still valid? The sure thing is that a primary cycle started at November 16, 2012 in both US and European indexes, as from then, it is unclear when primary cycle tops and bottoms have been formed.
I have two possible scenario’s.
The dates mentioned are taken from the S&P500:
Start Top End
Nov 16, 2012 - Feb 20, 2013 - Feb 27, 2013 (top in DAX is on Jan 28)
Feb 27, 2013 - May 25, 2013 - June 24, 2013
June 24, 2013 - ?? - ??
Start Top End
Nov 16, 2012 - Apr 11, 2013 - Apr 19, 2013 (top in DAX is on March 14)
Apr 19, 2013 - Aug 2, 2013 - Aug 28, 2013 (top in DAX is on May 22)
Aug 28, 2013 - ?? - ?? (bottom in DAX was on September 4)
The thing is that I have December 25 2013 as a possible turning date and the next one is around March 2, 2014. I don’t think that the December 25 turn date will be a bottom. The March 2, 2014 turn date could be a bottom. That makes it almost impossible that June 24 has been the start of a new primary cycle as the time between June 24 and March 2, 2014 is too long for a primary cycle. This period is 35 weeks and this is way too long for a primary cycle that has a average length of 18 weeks and should take between 12 and 26 weeks. Please note that recently primary cycles are quite long. This can be considered as normal behavior with Saturn in Sagittarius. “Saturn in Sagittarius can produce long-lasting bull runs.”
I think I will have to change my view. August 28/September 4 makes more sense as the last Primary cycle bottom than June 24. But I am not 100% sure.