Markets turned upwards, against my expectation. The weekly indicators made a bullish crossing, so the logical conclusion is that we are going to see new highs. The NASDAQ is still making new highs and the indicators never turned bearish between August 1 and September 4. So, I had to adapt my vision. See below the new preview.
Sep 2, 2013
The top in the US indexes and the FTSE of August 2 is still valid and the European indexes made a top around August 16. This was not at the geocentric Mars - Jupiter conjunction as I expected, but at its heliocentric conjunction.
It is too late for the August 24 turn date to be a major turn date, so I think the minor top on August 26 was the expected turn date for August 24 plus or minus 3 trading days. The only remaining possibility is that the current primary cycle started on June 24 and we probably have had the top of the cycle: August 2 in the US indexes and the FTSE, and around August 16 in the DAX and CAC. This was a fast top, so we could expect left translation in the current primary cycle. This means the bottom of the cycle will probably be lower than the bottom of June 24. Furthermore, in the weekly charts all indexes have seen a bearish crossing of the indicator. It has been difficult in the past month to clearly see the tops and bottoms of the primary cycle. The last clear bottom was on November 16. From then it was unclear. Let’s hope it will be a lot easier to see from now.
If the top that has been formed now will hold, I expect a bear market until at least February/March next year and maybe longer. The tops that have been formed now, make sense from a astronomical point of view. The only exception is the CAC40, where the top of August 16 is not an ideal top.
My current outlook is as follows:
The astronomical calendar for September:
The weekly charts: