Update July 13, 2013.
I expected a reversal around June 22nd, which did actually happen, but I did not expect it to be that strong in terms of both price and duration.
In the US indexes and the FTSE100, the weekly indicator switched back from negative to positive. The Nasdaq even broke its recent top and the Dow Jones and S&P500 are now very close tot their May tops. The main European indices such as the DAX and the CAC did not reach a long signal yet.
At the moment, I am seriously doubting whether my analysis of the last primary cycles has been correct.
It is clear that in European and US indices, a new cycle started on November 16, 2012, and from then it is unclear. I think there are two possible scenarios:
- Scenario 1: A new primary cycle started at April 19 2013, which I assumed until now. This is the best possibility when you just look at the charts.
- Scenario 2: A new primary cycle started at February 26 and then the next one on June 24. When you look at the European charts, it does not make a lot of sense. In case of the DAX and CAC40 it makes a top on March 13, then makes a bottom on April 19 that is lower than the cycle start and then makes a new cycle high. It does make sense in the US indices, especially the Nasdaq.
As I expect a LONG TERM top in the period between January 11 and July 22 2013, there is a chance indices will make a new high around July 22 and then start a multi month decline. I think the planetary alignment around July 22 is very suitable for a long term top. At the other hand, if indices continue rising after July 22, forget about a long term top and I expect markets to continue rising several months (however, there is small chance the top will be around August 1). My primary candidate for a long term top was around March 28, but that one did not work out. My secondary candidate is July 22 2013. There will be 4 planets in Cancer (cardinal sign), Mars will conjunct Jupiter (please check what happened the last time they met, at April 30 2011) and it is the third and last 240 degrees aspect between Saturn and Neptune which has a very high correlation of ending/beginning long term cycles. Things to look for are: it would be perfectly normal if US indices take out their previous highs and European markets don’t. This is called inter-market divergence. Mars-Jupiter conjunctions happen to coincide with (unexpected) big news at world level. Something positive/negative will happen with a worldwide very famous person. At the previous conjunction the nr. 1 enemy of the United States was killed in an attack in Pakistan.
I now have two scenarios with subscenarios within them.
Please see below the chart for July 22. There are 2 triangles in force.
The next chart is of August 24. It has triangle that also was present on July 22 and still is in force. In addition it has a square formation. However, on this date I am missing the fact that there are multiple planets in one sign.
Last night I was watching a tv show and a guest said that there is a clear distinction between hope and expectation. I hope that my hope for a multi year high around July 22 did not influence my expectation (which was my initial scenario that the current primary cycle started at April 19).