Jun 15, 2013

Update June 15, 2013

The markets have risen from the primary cycle start on April 18 to a top on May 22. Markets fell from then. Most had a serious correction, which is not a sign of strength in such an early phase of the cycle.


The German DAX:

Corrected more than 50% from the cycle start. The weekly indicator switched from positive to neutral.






The French CAC 40:

Had a correction to below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, which is not a sign of strength this early in the cycle. The weekly indicator made a bearish crossing in the previous week.






The FTSE 100:
Fell even below the cycle start. The weekly indicator made a bearish crossing in the previous week.






The S&P500:
This index has not a very clear cycle start at April 18, but as most indexes made a clear cycle start at this date, let’s assume the S&P500 also did so. The S&P500 had a correction to just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. The weekly indicator turned from positive to neutral. The same goes for the Nasdaq and Dow Jones. The S&P500 still holds above its bullish long term trendline. This index is still bullish.






So the question is: have we seen the top yet? My best guess is that we did. It is not a positive sign that markets decline to their 61.8% retracement level within such a short time from the cycle start (we are now in week 8). You might have a look at the Australian index, which  already fell below its cycle start. But this index does not always correspond with European and/or US indexes in terms of timing. I think the most probable situation is that we have seen the top of this cycle and will decline to July 21st or preferably August 22.



See below my outlook. I have changed the values for my outlook due to some further analysis and because I don't think the possible reversal date of June 22 will be a higher top than the top on May 22.