Feb 20, 2013

Update February 20, 2013

No top was formed on February 10 +/- 3 trading days and we are still in the bullish mode. See below the updated outlook diagram.

Outlook











Date:
20-Feb-13










Current situation:











Cycle
Start
Current week #



Primary cycle
16-Nov-12
14



50 week cycle
4-Jun-12
37









Primary cycle scenarios:










Start
Top
End
Wks-top
Wks-end
Rating ( %)
16-Nov-12
13-Dec-12
10-Feb-13
3,9
12,3
0
16-Nov-12
10-Feb-13
25-Feb-13
12,3
14,4
0
16-Nov-12
10-Feb-13
5-Mar-13
12,3
15,6
0
16-Nov-12
25-Feb-13
28-Mar-13
14,4
18,9
40
16-Nov-12
28-Mar-13
28-Apr-13
18,9
23,3
60





100






Cycle end @ min. duration
08-Feb-13



Cycle end @ max. duration
10-May-13









Possible reversal dates:
13-dec-12





10-feb-13
**




25-feb-13
**




5-mrt-13





28-mrt-13
**




28-apr-12
**




The indicator for the European indexes turned back from bearish to bullish. We prefer not to see a crossing from bullish to bearish while the top has not been placed yet, but sometimes this does happen. The fact that this did not happen in the US indexes and for example the Nikkei and the Australian ordinaries, should have been a sign not to go short and wait to see what happens.



Please let me explain why I expect the period around April 28 as a major top. See the chart below with the planetary events around these dates. 

Date
Moon
Aspect
Transition
Retro
Birth chart
Same Sign







26-3-2013
Min dec
Mars - Jupiter 300



4 AR
27-3-2013
Full moon




4 AR
28-3-2013




Mars  USBchart
4 AR
29-3-2013
MS 0
Sun - Uranus 0
Venus - Uranus 0



4 AR
30-3-2013
True Node D




4 AR
31-3-2013
Perigee
Venus - Jupiter 300
Venus - Pluto 90



4 AR
1-4-2013
Max dec
Sun - Pluto 90


Venus  USBchart
4 AR


We will have 4 planets in the same sign, which is rare, although this occurs more frequently this year. In addition, we have 4 conjunctions between February 22nd and 28th (Sun-Venus conjunction is not listed above as it is not really relevant for the markets, but it does take place.) These conjunctions take place while Mars is in its home sign Aries (cardinal sign). The same happened in May 2011. The big fall did not take place immediately but finally market did plunge. I expect a long term top here.